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Module 01 · Foundations · Interactive lesson

Precision
& Recall

A model scores every benefit application on how clearly the veteran qualifies. One threshold decides who gets fast-tracked. Move it, and you trade one kind of mistake for another — and every mistake is a real person. Drag the line and watch the confusion matrix breathe.

Live · 200 applications

98 fast-tracked

Strip plot of 200 benefit applications by model scoreTop row: genuinely eligible veterans. Bottom row: not eligible. Dots to the right of the threshold line at score 50 are fast-tracked. Red dots are false positives (wrongly fast-tracked); amber dots are false negatives (wrongly denied).TRULY ELIGIBLE (94)NOT ELIGIBLE (106)0255075100MODEL SCORE →Score 38 · Correctly heldScore 83 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 52 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 49 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 59 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 51 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 26 · Correctly heldScore 39 · Correctly heldScore 77 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 79 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 8 · Correctly heldScore 76 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 28 · Correctly heldScore 55 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 67 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 44 · Correctly heldScore 42 · Correctly heldScore 52 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 59 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 55 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 79 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 60 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 89 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 48 · Correctly heldScore 61 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 28 · Correctly heldScore 15 · Correctly heldScore 57 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 37 · Correctly heldScore 48 · Correctly heldScore 36 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 47 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 65 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 35 · Correctly heldScore 52 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 32 · Correctly heldScore 9 · Correctly heldScore 64 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 73 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 31 · Correctly heldScore 80 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 44 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 79 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 57 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 62 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 36 · Correctly heldScore 42 · Correctly heldScore 16 · Correctly heldScore 45 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 50 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 10 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 32 · Correctly heldScore 21 · Correctly heldScore 18 · Correctly heldScore 72 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 42 · Correctly heldScore 46 · Correctly heldScore 67 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 34 · Correctly heldScore 43 · Correctly heldScore 59 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 53 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 44 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 43 · Correctly heldScore 72 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 14 · Correctly heldScore 42 · Correctly heldScore 26 · Correctly heldScore 18 · Correctly heldScore 47 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 65 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 49 · Correctly heldScore 92 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 55 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 63 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 56 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 88 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 54 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 60 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 70 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 77 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 100 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 36 · Correctly heldScore 44 · Correctly heldScore 64 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 72 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 43 · Correctly heldScore 53 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 78 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 51 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 26 · Correctly heldScore 44 · Correctly heldScore 75 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 84 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 42 · Correctly heldScore 72 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 76 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 35 · Correctly heldScore 24 · Correctly heldScore 32 · Correctly heldScore 31 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 49 · Correctly heldScore 44 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 77 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 49 · Correctly heldScore 61 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 67 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 81 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 23 · Correctly heldScore 63 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 47 · Correctly heldScore 41 · Correctly heldScore 20 · Correctly heldScore 40 · Correctly heldScore 40 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 51 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 52 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 30 · Correctly heldScore 43 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 73 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 48 · Correctly heldScore 42 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 60 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 65 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 39 · Correctly heldScore 50 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 76 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 29 · Correctly heldScore 24 · Correctly heldScore 62 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 49 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 67 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 48 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 20 · Correctly heldScore 72 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 62 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 58 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 33 · Correctly heldScore 11 · Correctly heldScore 52 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 28 · Correctly heldScore 39 · Correctly heldScore 42 · Correctly heldScore 43 · Correctly heldScore 64 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 10 · Correctly heldScore 40 · Correctly heldScore 35 · Correctly heldScore 72 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 92 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 8 · Correctly heldScore 73 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 62 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 65 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 50 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 42 · Correctly heldScore 52 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 27 · Correctly heldScore 31 · Correctly heldScore 42 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 41 · Correctly heldScore 59 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 39 · Correctly heldScore 62 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 70 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 67 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 28 · Correctly heldScore 54 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 58 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 60 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 28 · Correctly heldScore 75 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 45 · Correctly heldScore 53 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 71 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 65 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 69 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 68 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 32 · Correctly heldScore 37 · Correctly heldScore 37 · Correctly heldScore 22 · Correctly heldScore 43 · Correctly heldScore 62 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 0 · Correctly heldScore 57 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 48 · Wrongly denied (false negative)Score 29 · Correctly heldScore 36 · Correctly heldScore 84 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 49 · Correctly heldScore 50 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 22 · Correctly heldScore 68 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 31 · Correctly heldScore 77 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 62 · Correctly fast-trackedScore 77 · Wrongly fast-tracked (false positive)Score 22 · Correctly heldScore 41 · Correctly held
50

Score 50 fast-tracked; below → held for manual review.

Precision–recall curve

Precision–recall curveThe curve traced as the threshold sweeps 0 to 100. The marked point is the current threshold of 50: recall 82%, precision 79%.Recall →Precision

The gold dot is your current threshold. Drag the line above and watch it ride the curve.

Confusion matrix

at threshold ≥ 50

True positive77

Eligible veteran, correctly fast-tracked.

False positive21

Not eligible, wrongly fast-tracked — a benefit goes to the wrong claim.

False negative17

Genuinely eligible, wrongly denied — a veteran waits who shouldn't.

True negative85

Not eligible, correctly held back.

Live metrics

Precision

0.79

Of those fast-tracked, the share truly eligible. Up = fewer false positives.

Recall

0.82

Of all eligible veterans, the share we reached. Up = fewer false negatives.

Accuracy

0.81

Share of all decisions that were correct.

F1 score

0.80

Harmonic mean of precision and recall — one balanced number.

The tradeoff, in human terms

Raise the threshold and you demand more confidence before fast-tracking. False positives fall (precision rises) — but you start denying genuinely eligible veterans, so false negatives climb (recall drops). Lower it and the trade reverses. There is no setting with zero of both: the clouds overlap. In a governed system you choose the point on this curve deliberately, document why, and send the borderline cases to a human — never let one silent number decide alone.

Govern, in practice

Precision and recall aren't just chart axes — they're the two ways an eligibility model can fail a veteran. Scholars pick the operating point on the record, the choice is audit-logged, and borderline scores route to human review before any claim is touched.

Mission first, people always.